Before I write a line of code for a new product, I spend an hour with a spreadsheet. Not a financial model. Not a pitch deck. A simple sheet that answers three questions.
What do I need to charge for this to be worth doing? How many customers do I need at that price to cover the cost of building and running it? And does my realistic addressable market actually contain that many people who have the problem acutely enough to pay?
Most founders skip this. Not because they don’t understand it. Because it feels premature. The product isn’t built yet. The pricing isn’t decided. The market is “everyone who needs better X.” It’s easier to start building than to confront a column of numbers that might tell you the answer is no.
But that’s the whole point. The spreadsheet tells you the answer is no before the prototype does. Before the launch does. Before the seed round does. Finding out you need 10,000 paying users when your realistic market is 500 people costs you nothing if you do it on a spreadsheet. It costs you months and real money if you find out after shipping.
I’ve watched founders build for a year and then discover the unit economics never worked. I’ve also watched founders kill an idea in an afternoon because the spreadsheet said the chain was too long. The second outcome is the better one. Both founders learned the same thing. Only one paid for the lesson.
The cheapest test you’re not running is the one that stops you building the wrong thing. Run it first.
